NWS Morehead City Hurricane Ian Update
Ian is now a strong Category 4 hurricane located about 75 miles WSW of Naples, FL. No major changes were made to the forecast track overnight - Ian is still expected to make landfall today along the west coast of Florida, around the Port Charlotte area, and slowly track NE across central FL tonight and Thursday. The current forecast brings Ian off the east coast of FL and back out into the Atlantic as a Tropical Storm Thursday night where it will begin a slight NNW turn towards Georgia/South Carolina Friday where a second landfall is likely, eventually becoming a Tropical Depression. As Ian impacts the GA/SC region, it will interact with a strong frontal boundary that will create strong NE winds and heavy rainfall for eastern NC.
Confidence continues to increase that Eastern NC will feel impacts from this system, with the greatest local threats being heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding, as well as coastal flooding.
Changes from last briefing:
Coastal Flood Watch issued for areas around SW Pamlico Sound, Neuse & Bay Rivers, and Pamlico & Pungo Rivers.
Upgraded to Gale Warnings for southern coastal waters; issued additional Gale Watch for northern coastal waters
SPC has added portions of eastern NC into a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Friday
No major changes have been made to the rainfall forecast - we are still expecting a general 4-8 inches of rain Thursday through Saturday with heavier amounts possible along the coast. Please be aware that the rainfall forecast is highly dependent on the eventual track and speed of Ian through the Southeast US, and the area of maximum rainfall may shift.
Greatest risk for coastal flooding will be along the southern/western Pamlico Sound, Neuse & Bay Rivers, and Pamlico & Pungo Rivers. Other areas of concern include Oceanside OBX, Core Sound, Bogue Sound, and Oceanside Crystal Coast, though it remains too early for specific impacts in these areas at this time. Additional watches, warnings, and/or advisories will be issued as needed.
We will monitor the progress and evolution of this system and will provide additional briefings as the forecast warrants.
